Political And Investment Thoughts…Between The Mortar And The Pestle
There is probably no one in America who; is of voting age, has any amount of money, has or is looking for a job, can read and has a lick of sense, that does not have some level of concern about where our country is heading and what our future holds economically. Consider me in this group, although some might question the “lick of sense” issue.
As if you haven’t made your own mental list of what we are now facing here is a good start.
FINANCIALLY we have staggering US debt that has tripled in just the last 2 years through stupid, non productive, pork barrel spending, designed, arguably, to further control a portion of our population hell-bent on getting something for nothing and increasing political power. Globally, we see all of Europe, especially Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain drowning in a sea of debt from decades of egregious spending patterns that allows people to retire in their 50′s with salaries almost equal to their working wages. Continental Europe’s dominate currency, the Euro, is in grave peril. Even though our own financial house is built on sand, there is an occasional flight to US Bonds, illustrating that we are probably just the tallest midget in the room.
In SOCIETY, un-employment is expanding. The tax burden is increasing in spite of historical data that shows that by reducing tax rates production is increased and tax revenues rise. Counter intuitive but true. The resulting unrest in our society is growing exponentially. The entitlement driven group on one side faces off against over burdened taxpayers and job producers on the other resulting in growing polarization within our society. Often this battle breaks down along racial lines.
POLITICALLY there is also exploding polarization. Obama has proven to be an empty suit, devoid of both truth and the experience to deal with issues apart from spending money we don’t have to to solve problems created by spending too much money. The housing bubble was caused by “encouraging” people to borrow excessively to buy houses they couldn’t pay for and then ask prudent people….tax payers….to pay for these excesses. Barney Frank and Chris Dodd should be pillared for their part in this fiasco. When there was recent move to require 5% down on loans to potential house buyers, Dodd said, “that is unfair because then only people who could afford it could buy a house.” These people live among us folks…..and they vote….and sometimes they are elected to lead us. God help us! The reason for our impending collapse is so clear that Stevie Wonder could see it…..a pervasive entitlement philosophy that perpetuates enslavement to a lack of responsibility.
These issues put you and me in between the catalytic duo of….mortar and pestle. Our global world is the mortar, The American People (I hate to hear politicians use this phrase….it seems so hollow given what they try to do to us) are the collective material contained therein and our liberal government is the pestle…grinding away at our minds, wealth and future. This precipitates volatility in all segments of economic life WORLDWIDE. We have to do something to prepare for the retirement or worse yet, incapacitation, that we inevitably face The question, therefore, is where do you invest your assets?
Understand that this is not to be considered as personal investment advice for you. I simply lay these thoughts out for consideration. The DJIA is currently at roughly 10,000. I doubt it will be there a year from now. I bet it is either significantly higher or significantly lower. Likewise, interest rates are at almost all time lows. For them to decline would mean severe recession or depression. Rising interest rates would signal inflation, which if taken to the extreme could be “run away inflation.” Gold is currently priced at about $1200 an ounce, only slightly below its all time high. My guess is that it will be above $2000 or below $500 an ounce a year from now but not at its present level.
We have never been in the global peril we are in today regarding sovereign stability of currency worldwide. The consideration of a hedge using gold or silver has the lustre never before seen. Gold did reach $800 an ounce in the early 80′s but did so largely on the fear of runaway inflation. Currency collapse was not a major fear at that time.. The threat of major sovereign currency problems does exist today. Thus, gold could have some value as a hedge in many portfolios.
We all should weigh these assets in light of our own time horizon, risk tolerance and return objectives as we allocate assets to the various classes of investments. Seek good counsel. Think outside the box. Consider the track record of those giving you advice. Also, consider how your advisor is being paid…..by transactions or by value provided. Move cautiously, but move!
When making investment decisions today, how does it feel to be between the mortar and the pestle?
